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The Fallacies of Cold War Deterrence and a New Direction (Paperback)
  • The Fallacies of Cold War Deterrence and a New Direction (Paperback)
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The Fallacies of Cold War Deterrence and a New Direction (Paperback)

(author)
£36.50
Paperback 172 Pages / Published: 30/07/2001
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In 1938, Britain's policy of appeasement toward the Third Reich was doomed because British leaders greatly misjudged Hitler's basic beliefs and thus also his behavior. Confident expectations - built on hope instead of evidence - were far out of line with reality. U.S. Cold War nuclear deterrence policy was similarly based on the confident but mistaken assumption that Soviet leaders would be reasonable by Washington's standards. They would view nuclear weapons ""sensibly,"" as understood in Washington, and behave reasonably when presented with U.S. nuclear threats. The U.S. assumption was that any sane challenger would be deterred from severe provocations because not to do so would be irrational. In The Fallacies of Cold War Deterrence and A New Direction, Keith B. Payne addresses the question of whether this assumption is adequate for the post-Cold War period. Using historical cases as evidence, and examples such as a U.S.-Chinese crisis over Taiwan, he proposes that U.S. policymakers should move away from the assumption that all our opponents are comfortably predictable by the standards of our own culture. If we are to avoid unexpected and possibly disastrous failures of deterrence, he argues, we should examine closely particular opponents' culture and beliefs in order to better anticipate their likely responses to U.S. deterrence threats.

Publisher: The University Press of Kentucky
ISBN: 9780813190150
Number of pages: 172
Weight: 361 g
Dimensions: 229 x 152 x 13 mm


MEDIA REVIEWS

"Payne is so persuasive that readers will cringe, ever after, when they encounter categorical statements such as 'the exact same kinds of nuclear deterrence that have always worked will continue to work.'" -- Air and Space Power


"Not many books have the potential to make the difference between war and peace: Keith Payne's latest expedition into deterrence country is one such." -- Colin S. Gray


"So many different communities of scholars and policymakers should read Keith Payne's bracing and sensible new book that it's difficult to know where to begin sending copies." -- H-NET Book Review


"Offers a more comprehensive and empirical methodology for formulating U.S. deterrence postures." -- Military Review


"An essential text for understanding the reasoning behind the administration's push for missile defense. (Asked whom to talk to about the current state of deterrence theory, one nuclear expert quipped, 'If you talked to Keith Payne, you've talked to everyone.')." -- National Review


"Cogently and carefully charts a fresh path through the badly overgrown and cluttered thicket of modern strategic thinking." -- R. James Woolsey


"Payne offers an interesting empirically-based methodology in an attempt to make deterrence a more viable policy than it has been heretofore." -- Virginia Quarterly Review


"Payne forces the reader to recognize how much of America's thinking about military strategy is trapped in the categories of Cold War 'deterrence theory.' His fascinating book, filled with excellent material and provocative argument, offers both a strong academic contribution and much policy relevant analysis. Happily, it is well written, highly accessible." -- William E. Odom

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