Seen it Coming: How We Can Use Science to Read the Early-Warning Signs (Paperback)

Master of popular science Len Fisher is back again, to explain why unexpected things happen, and how we can avoid the bad ones. The future is uncertain. We all know that. Psychics are bogus and astrology is a sham. But let's face it: the possibilities that concern us most - the scariest disasters - are those that are unlike anything we've seen in the past. So does science have any way to predict what lies ahead? In "Crashes, Crises, and Calamities" popular scientist Len Fisher teaches us how to expect the unexpected. Drawing on ecology and biology as well as maths and physics, this book offers four fundamental tools that scientists and engineers use to forecast the likelihood of sudden change: stability theory, catastrophe theory, complexity theory, and game theory. In accessible prose, Fisher demonstrates how we can use these theories to forecast and manage the abrupt changes that so often catch us by surprise, both in our daily lives and in a more global context. From the collapse of a banking system and the demise of a species, to the sudden emergence of a new and valuable technology through a 'breakthrough' in understanding, we simply cannot predict such scenarios by assuming that things will carry on as they have. The issues here are at the cutting edge of science and its interactions with the rest of the world, helping us find ways to act before a full-fledged catastrophe is upon us. "Crashes, Crises, and Calamities" is a witty and informative tour of predicting significant change amidst the chaos and complexity of our daily lives.