The vulnerability of our civilization to earthquakes is rapidly growing, rais- ing earthquakes to the ranks of major threats faced by humankind. Earth- quake prediction is necessary to reduce that threat by undertaking disaster- preparedness measures. This is one of the critically urgent problems whose solution requires fundamental research. At the same time, prediction is a ma- jor tool of basic science, a source of heuristic constraints and the final test of theories. This volume summarizes the state-of-the-art in earthquake prediction. Its following aspects are considered: - Existing prediction algorithms and the quality of predictions they pro- vide. - Application of such predictions for damage reduction, given their current accuracy, so far limited. - Fundamental understanding of the lithosphere gained in earthquake prediction research. - Emerging possibilities for major improvements of earthquake prediction methods. - Potential implications for predicting other disasters, besides earthquakes. Methodologies. At the heart of the research described here is the inte- gration of three methodologies: phenomenological analysis of observations; "universal" models of complex systems such as those considered in statistical physics and nonlinear dynamics; and Earth-specific models of tectonic fault networks. In addition, the theory of optimal control is used to link earthquake prediction with earthquake preparedness.
Publisher: Springer-Verlag Berlin and Heidelberg GmbH & Co. KG
Number of pages: 337
Weight: 1490 g
Dimensions: 235 x 155 x 20 mm
Edition: 2003 ed.
"This is an excellent book, [...] the first (to my knowledge) to deal with the Dynamics of the Lithosphere from the point of view of Dynamical Systems. [...] The book is well written and clearly organized. Every chapter is self-contained and addressed to graduate students and researchers in general." (Antoni M. Correig Blanchar, Newsletter of the European Geophysical Society, Oct. 15. 2003)