This report on two recent workshops held under the auspices of the World Health Organization deals with models of non- communicable diseases to be applied in the area of health policy which is to aim at the reduction of incidence and prevalence of noncommunicable diseases and the resulting disability and mortality. This applies to the community, national and international level. The methods described as well as topics and examples stated here enable the reader to understand the particular problems of noncommunicable disease development during forcasting periods needed for prevention and control programmes. In thiscontext disease development is characterized by a) slow development of risk factors in the course of time; b) multi- factorial interactions of several risk factors. Several papers also deal with the relationship between disease development and the appropriate health services in termsof the allocation of resources and cost-effectiveness of alternative technologies. Most reports include a wide range of data from epidemiologicaland clinical studies in order to illustrate the way in which these models use available data to support health policy decisions.
The papers emphasis the relationship between appropriate and reliable data and the development of biologically realistic models which comprise the essential elements of noncommuni- cable disease development. The reader will be made aware of the use of such models by health managers and planners and of the need of incorporat- ing them in training curricula for epidemiologists and health planners.
Publisher: Springer-Verlag Berlin and Heidelberg GmbH & Co. KG