Expert Adjustments of Model Forecasts: Theory, Practice and Strategies for Improvement (Paperback)
  • Expert Adjustments of Model Forecasts: Theory, Practice and Strategies for Improvement (Paperback)
zoom

Expert Adjustments of Model Forecasts: Theory, Practice and Strategies for Improvement (Paperback)

(author)
£21.99
Paperback 143 Pages / Published: 06/10/2014
  • We can order this

Usually dispatched within 2 weeks

  • This item has been added to your basket
To what extent should anybody who has to make model forecasts generated from detailed data analysis adjust their forecasts based on their own intuition? In this book, Philip Hans Franses, one of Europe's leading econometricians, presents the notion that many publicly available forecasts have experienced an 'expert's touch', and questions whether this type of intervention is useful and if a lighter adjustment would be more beneficial. Covering an extensive research area, this accessible book brings together current theoretical insights and new empirical results to examine expert adjustment from an econometric perspective. The author's analysis is based on a range of real forecasts and the datasets upon which the forecasters relied. The various motivations behind experts' modifications are considered, and guidelines for creating more useful and reliable adjusted forecasts are suggested. This book will appeal to academics and practitioners with an interest in forecasting methodology.

Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9781107441613
Number of pages: 143
Weight: 210 g
Dimensions: 226 x 150 x 8 mm


MEDIA REVIEWS
'All economic and business forecasting involves judgment to some extent, but most books focus on the application of statistical methods. At last we have a book that directly addresses the role of judgment in forecasting and applies a set of rigorous methods to assess its potential strengths and limitations.' Paul Goodwin, Emeritus Professor, University of Bath
'This monograph is an important substantial analysis of a crucial aspect of forecasting practice that is often treated far too casually. Expert interventions on model-based forecasts are ubiquitous, but rarely subject to formal analysis. This book will be valuable in practice and a stimulus to researchers.' Derek Bunn, London Business School
"All economic and business forecasting involves judgment to some extent, but most books focus on the application of statistical methods. At last we have a book that directly addresses the role of judgment in forecasting and applies a set of rigorous methods to assess its potential strengths and limitations." Paul Goodwin, Emeritus Professor, University of Bath
"This monograph is an important substantial analysis of a crucial aspect of forecasting practice that is often treated far too casually. Expert interventions on model-based forecasts are ubiquitous, but rarely subject to formal analysis. This book will be valuable in practice and a stimulus to researchers." Derek Bunn, London Business School

You may also be interested in...

Statistics for Business and Economics
Added to basket
Econometrics
Added to basket
£38.00
Hardback
Data Management Using Stata
Added to basket
Mastering 'Metrics
Added to basket
Principles of Econometrics
Added to basket
Econometrics For Dummies
Added to basket
Introductory Econometrics for Finance
Added to basket
Introductory Econometrics for Finance
Added to basket
Inequality and Instability
Added to basket
Essentials of Econometrics (Int'l Ed)
Added to basket
Mostly Harmless Econometrics
Added to basket
Introductory Econometrics
Added to basket
Using Statistics in Economics
Added to basket

Reviews

Please sign in to write a review

Your review has been submitted successfully.