This book examines the U.S economy from 1967 to 2011 and utilizes a new method to predict the future of the economy as far ahead as 2030. This new method uses population subgroup data. Variables used in the cross-sectional matrix include ethnicity, sex, age, and average personal income of those having personal income. The mathematical basis, the data used, and the results are all presented in graphic form. The estimates are compared to National Bureau of Economic Research Dating Committee data. Projections using estimates from the U.S. Bureau of Census are used to further project personal income, personal income annual change, and disposable personal income to 2030.
The book concludes that the New Energy Movement and their development of non-polluting energy and electricity production methods that do not consume uranium, radioactive material, or fossil fuels. Therefore, large amounts of money should be invested in these devices, their development, and implementation.
Publisher: University Press of America
Number of pages: 180
Weight: 449 g
Dimensions: 237 x 161 x 20 mm
Philip S. Salisbury is a retired policy analyst for the State of Illinois. During the past 30 years his research has focused on the problems of economic growth and decline. These questions have attracted some noteworthy scholars of modern economics, including John Maynard Keynes, Milton Friedman, Bernard Bernanke, among others. In the 1940's and after A.F. Burns and W.C. Mitchell refined techniques for measuring business cycles. This scholarship established the foundations for the National Bureau of Economic Research's Dating Committee's work. Business cycles fostered much research and influenced U.S. policy making.
Using extensive analyses and integration of multiple data repositories, Salisbury has extended this field of inquiry into important demographic issues that have not been carefully examined. His data analyses have produced algorithms that explain some past dynamics of economic growth and decline, with special emphasis on population dynamics. Salisbury's research also provides empirical foundations to assess where the U.S. economy is headed and what policy options might be most effective in this era of declining population growth and increasing pollution.
Anyone interested in questions of economic growth and decline will gain new insights about the U.S. economy-its past and future. -- Phillip M. Gregg, Professor Emeritus, University of Illinois Springfield